It’s Gonna Snow…

…. Or at least that’s what NOAA is saying. And what they mean is it’s going to snow…or rain. But depending on where you are, it could snow a lot. And the driving could be horrendous on Thursday. Isn’t that peachy?

Of course the way they say it is as follows:  

DEEP CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY 00Z THURSDAY AS
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. AS POTENT 5H ENERGY ROUNDS
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY 03Z THURSDAY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY 12Z THURSDAY…AS INITIAL SURGE OF DEEP 850 TO
500MB MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR CWA. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL WRAP
BACK INTO OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS CLOSED 5H/7H CIRCULATION MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THE
COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP PRODUCE COLD
ENOUGH THERMAL PROFILES TO CHANGE RAIN OVER TO SNOW…FIRST IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF NY…THEN IN VT. USING THE 925MB TO 850MB 0C LINE
SUPPORTS PRECIP CHANGING TO SNOW BY 03Z NORTHERN DACKS ABOVE 1500
FEET AND BY 06Z NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM STOWE TO JAY
PEAK…

Our Clif Notes version: It’s going to change to snow in the mountains, hit the Adirondacks first and then the Northern Greens. Expect the most snow in the usual “North of Route 2” areas (meaning Stowe, Smuggs, Bolton, Jay Peak. And then it gets better! 

AND LOWERING TO NEAR THE VALLEY FLOOR BY 12Z THURSDAY. A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY MORNING AS WE SHIFT
FROM THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND STRONG
RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 250MB JET TO A MESOSCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
DEVELOPING UPSLOPE FLOW AND WRAP AROUND MOISTURE. THINKING BY 15Z
THURSDAY DEVELOPING 850 TO 700MB FLOW OF 15 TO 30 KNOTS WITH PLENTY
OF 1000 TO 700MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND ASSOCIATED UPWARD VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELDS WILL HELP IN REDEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY SNOW. BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VT…INCLUDING THE EASTERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
WILL MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS FROM WEDS NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ACROSS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN CWA…WITH HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE
MTNS. HAVE NOTED THAT EVEN WITH THE SYSTEM BEING CLOSED OFF THE
CIRCULATION REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHIFTING
EAST OF OUR CWA BY 09Z FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY POPS
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS AND TAPER OFF TO CHC BY 12Z
FRIDAY.

Oooooooh! We love it when they say “deep layer moisture” and “likely pops” 

SNOWFALL WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATION DEPEND GIVEN THERMAL PROFILES
ACROSS OUR CWA…WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OCCURRING ABOVE 2000 FEET
FROM THE NORTHERN DACKS INTO THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS. EARLY
INDICATIONS SUGGEST 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THESE AREAS WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES
BETWEEN 1000 AND 2000 FEET AND ONLY A TRACE TO AN INCH OR SO BELOW
1000 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT
LAWERENCE VALLEYS. LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS OVER THE SOUTHERN SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY OR LOWER CT RIVER VALLEY NEAR VSF.

Now we are getting to the meat of it, and yes, there’s sirloin here: 4 to 8 inches. Yippee! But that’s at elevation so flatlanders, don’t judge the conditions by what you see at the rest stops on I91. 

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN DACKS INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS FROM WEDS
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECTING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL
DISSIPATE ACROSS THE DACKS BY 03Z FRIDAY AND AROUND 06Z AS
MOISTURE DECREASES.

Ahhhh. When was the last time we heard “Winter weather advisory?”

Let’s say it again, together now. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY!!! WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY!!!  (those exclamation marks are for Alex Kaufman’s benefit.)

Hot damn, that felt good. 

At last!